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Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne weather: forecast for ‘conditions to worsen’ as rain nears peak

A “dangerous situation is emerging” as Australia’s drenching continues with a powerful weather system set to turn around and hit the country twice.

Forecasters have warned of a “dangerous situation emerging” as conditions worsen on Thursday and into Friday due to the intense rain event sweeping across five states.

Already record rainfall has hit multiple areas with Alice Springs seeing its heaviest November downfall for two decades as 100mm fell on Wednesday. Flash flooding across a wide area is now a very real possibility.

The peak of the rain is due to hit Queensland and New South Wales on Thursday, moving towards the coast as the day wares on. But the system has a sting in its tail. It will move into the Tasman Sea on Friday, but will then turn south and drench Victoria and southern NSW with driving rain on the weekend.

Over the next 48 hours some parts of the east could see more than 100mm falling.

Brisbane is looking at up to 60mm of rain as well as storms on Thursday and Friday, Sydney could get a good drenching particularly on Friday, 70mm in Canberra is a possibility and Melbourne could be hit with up to 55m between Friday and Sunday.

“Residents from the Outback to the coast are being warned to brace for flash and riverine flooding today, as conditions worsen in a significant rainfall event impacting multiple states and territories,” Sky News Weather meteorologist Alison Osborne said on Thursday.

Double low pressure systems doing their worst

Two weather systems are currently in play across Australia, Ms Osborne said.

“A low pressure system over South Australia is deepening and that means strong winds as well as unseasonably heavy rain as it pushes further east.

“It’s linking up with existing tropical moisture over Queensland and NSW which has already been generating plenty of thunderstorm activity in the previous few weeks.”

Ms Osborne said further November records could be broken on Thursday as the rains fall and the rivers rise.

The focus of the weather’s anger on Thursday will be inland northern NSW and southern Queensland.

A trough is steamrolling towards the coast bringing storms and heavy falls in a region from the Central Coast north to much of the Queensland coast by the evening.

Up to 30mm of rain in Brisbane on a stormy day with a humid high of 29C on Thursday. The mercury could rise to 30C on Friday with another 10-30mm due in the gauge. But that system should clear out by Saturday leaving a dry weekend with high twenties maximums.

As you go up the coast the heaviest falls might be on Friday rather than today. Rockhampton could see 20mm of rain as storms roll through tomorrow. Rain, some heavy, for Townsville as well on Friday.

A severe weather warning of heavy rainfall of up to 100mm is in place for the Maranoa, Warrego, Darling Downs and Granite Belt regions.

More than 100mm due in some parts of NSW

A few showers in Sydney on Thursday but it’s likely to be less than on Wednesday. But Friday could be wet once again with 15mm falling and a high of 24C. It is looking clear for the weekend but it could be windy on Sunday.

Thursday will be soggier the further north you go in NSW with persistent rain likely in Newcastle and storms for Port Macquarie and Grafton.

Inland areas will also take a battering with storms and up to 40mm of rain in Inverell during the next 24 hours. Indeed storms are likely to thunder over most inland areas north of the central west.

Southern NSW may not be as stormy but could be even damper with 20-35mm in Wagga Wagga on Friday and as much as 110mm in Merimbula between Friday and Saturday.

Severe weather warnings of heavy rain and flooding are in place for inland northern NSW and the Riverina.

Clear for most of Thursday in Canberra but the rain should arrive in the evening and will then settle until Saturday with the risk of storms. Up to 50mm could fall on the capital on Friday alone.

A high of 22C on Thursday, then down to 16C on Friday and just 13C on Saturday. Minimums of around 7C.

Adelaide will see showers for the coming five days, some heavy with up to 10mm on Thursday as a system passes over. Maximums in the mid-teens dropping to 10C overnight.

Storm front set to double back and hit south east

Victoria will have a rather pleasant day on Thursday. Don’t be fooled; the rain is coming.

“The low pressure system is not done with its wrath over the southeast of the country,” said Ms Osborne.

“As it moves into the Tasman it will direct a vigorous onshore flow across the Gippsland area with another dangerous situation emerging there.

“This means strong winds, more flooding rain, and also the real risk of fallen trees across an area that has already been blighted by these weather events so far this year.”

For Melbourne, expect a dry day with a high of 17C on Thursday. And then a very wet day with up to 30mm coming down on Friday and a further 15mm on Saturday with highs of 15C and lows of 10C.

Gippsland will be far more affected though and a severe warning is in place with 40-70mm on Friday and a further 25-45mm on Saturday. The state’s west will see rain too but most of it on Thursday.

Tasmania will escape the worst of the rain with a few showers for Hobart over the coming days – perhaps 5mm on Friday. Mid teen maximums and lows of 7-8C in the Apple Isle.

Western Australia will be blissfully unaware of the drama in the south and east. A high of 25C in Perth on Thursday rising to 31C on a clear and bright Sunday and dipping down to 13-17C overnight.

Partly cloudy in Darwin on Thursday but storms are possible on Friday and Saturday. Reliably warm in the Top End with maximums of 35C and 28C minimums.

And Alice Springs, drenched on Wednesday, will be dry and sunny for the coming days with no rain forecast.


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