Just as the system that caused this week’s wild conditions departs, another large weather event is brewing. The Cup will want to avoid it.
The horses at the Melbourne Cup could find themselves battling against wind and rain as well as one another as a new weather event threatens the country’s south east.
A low pressure system which led to some wild storms in Victoria has headed into the Tasman Sea. But another one is right behind it.
The current system that has been causing all the drama should clear on Saturday leaving Sunday and Monday dry and sunny in Melbourne. The mercury could reach 24C at the beginning of the week.
But another low pressure system will have a major effect on Victoria. On Sunday, it will cross Western Australia before heading into The Bight.
The system itself should dive south of Tasmania. However, a cold front and trough associated with the system will charge towards the southern states on Monday and Tuesday and will then collide with tropical moisture sucked south from northern Australia. And that means lots of rain. Given catchments are saturated flash flooding is very possible.
Tuesday looking fine, but major cold front lurking
But at this point, it looks like the front will still be on its journey towards Victoria on Tuesday itself. Temperatures often rise ahead of a cold front and the forecast for Tuesday is for a baking 29C with not a drop of rain.
That front should reach the state on Wednesday when it will deliver between 6mm and 25mm of rain. That would be enough to make the Cup a damp squib if the system arrives earlier than expected.
Temperatures will drop after the front goes through with a high of 22C next Thursday.
The same low pressure system could also bring heavy rain to northern Tasmania on Wednesday.
The forecast should firm up as we get closer to Cup Day and it’s then we’ll know if its fancy hat weather, or waterproof mac weather.